Looking back at the year 2021, the aluminum industry will rise and fall, and the stars will change. The electrolytic aluminum industry once ushered in the soaring aluminum price of Yangliu Chunguang, and the aluminum processing industry has suffered from rising costs and financial pressure. All aluminum-related enterprises have experienced epidemic prevention and control, dual energy consumption control, and "dual carbon" goals. Suddenly surging and rushing to the multiple challenges of her. The footprints of the aluminum industry in 2021 are volatile, and both merits and demerits are like breeze, disappearing in the tunnel of red dust. One refers to quicksand, a period of time.
Under the background of "dual carbon", what opportunities and challenges does Aluminum Corporation of China face?
China's aluminum industry has a very complete industrial system, including bauxite mining, alumina production, electrolytic aluminum production, aluminum processing, secondary aluminum and the production of some auxiliary materials. In terms of industrial scale, it ranks first in the world. my country is moving from a big country in the aluminum industry to a strong country in the aluminum industry.
Chalco's "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" are a continuous tough battle, and this "hardness" is reflected in the difficulty. From the perspective of China's overall carbon emissions, the task of reducing emissions is arduous. The aluminum industry has the largest carbon emissions in the entire non-ferrous metal industry, and it is very difficult to reduce emissions. How to win this tough battle? Xiong Hui said that China Aluminum's carbon emissions may peak around 2050. From the perspective of supply, the "ceiling" of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 45 million tons, and it has reached 43 million tons. When the consumption peaks, the supply structure is also changing. In the future, there will be a large accumulation of secondary aluminum, and this aluminum will slowly enter the obsolescence period and then enter recycling.
Facing the new situation, the development of my country's aluminum industry no longer blindly pursues scale expansion, and intelligent manufacturing has become one of the positive breakthroughs for high-quality development. Aluminum processing companies take the initiative to adjust the energy use structure, focus on promoting equipment upgrades and intelligent transformation, promote the deep integration of industrial Internet, big data, artificial intelligence, 5G and other technologies with the aluminum industry, and explore new paths for the development of the aluminum industry.
Rising aluminum prices have brought about phased performance growth for aluminum companies, but it is also necessary to see rising production costs caused by rising aluminum prices, squeezed profits of mid- and downstream companies, decline in domestic and foreign market demand, industrial upgrading and energy use structure Adjustments and other issues and challenges. Therefore, maintaining aluminum prices within a reasonable range is conducive to the healthy development of the industry, the coordinated development of the entire industry chain, and the health and stability of the national economy. He called on major companies in the industry to join hands and take the initiative to take the lead in maintaining product price order, ensuring supply and price stability in the industry, and stabilizing market expectations. At the same time, through measures such as improving the level of resource utilization, strengthening production management efficiency, optimizing the energy structure, and vigorously developing the renewable industry, actively respond to the pressure of rising corporate costs and jointly maintain a good ecology of the industrial chain. In addition, facing the “dual-carbon” goal, the electrolytic aluminum industry should actively take practical actions to optimize the energy structure, increase the proportion of clean energy and new energy, promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, and increase the recycling and reuse of aluminum. The level of technology and management has effectively embarked on the path of low-carbon green development.
Looking forward to 2022, the fundamentals of the overall aluminum market show weak supply and demand.
Supply side: Under the background of the carbon neutral policy, the release of new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum as a high-energy-consuming industry has been hindered. In addition, we are also cautious about the expected resumption of production in 21-year production reduction projects. The supply-side increase is expected to be limited in 22 years. Demand side: the performance of traditional sectors such as real estate and automobiles is mediocre, and the new energy sector has great potential but limited drive; with the gradual tightening of overseas macro liquidity, the growth rate of aluminum exports may slow down, and overall consumption is expected to show weak growth next year.
Cost side: As alumina and coal prices still have room to go down, cost support may weaken further.
Looking forward to 2022, new energy vehicles and photovoltaic power generation and related supporting facilities will still be the new growth point for aluminum processing in the future. From January to November this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 3.08 million, and it is expected to exceed 5 million next year. To drive the overall growth of sheet, strip, foil and profiles, it is hoped that all aluminum processing companies and related equipment companies will seize the opportunity, adjust their structure, and jointly promote a bright future for the green and low-carbon aluminum industry!